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06/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves cooled off a bit out West at the start of their 11-game road trip. A trip to Arizona to facing the struggling Diamondbacks should be enough to get them rolling again.
National League East-leading Atlanta kicks off a four-game series tonight at Chase Field against Arizona, which hopes it has turned the corner since its horrid 10-game losing streak.
The Braves kicked off their road trip with four games versus the Los Angeles Dodgers and took Thursday's opener to stretch their winning streak to nine games. However, they then lost two of the next three versus Los Angeles, including Sunday's 5-4, 11-inning defeat.
Atlanta's Martin Prado went 3-for-6 with a homer to extend his hitting streak to 11 games, while Brian McCann also went deep for the Braves. Prado is hitting .404 (21-for-52) with seven RBI and 12 runs scored over his run.
Tim Hudson gave up four runs -- three earned -- over seven-plus frames, while Jesse Chavez allowed the winning run in the 11th inning after the Braves, who are still 20-6 since May 10, left 11 men on base.
"We had the lead but couldn't keep it," said Braves manager Bobby Cox. "We had 100 opportunities to win the game, a lot more than they did, but we couldn't get the big hit."
Atlanta owns a two-game edge over second-place Philadelphia in the NL East standings and is likely to be without Chipper Jones for a fifth straight contest tonight due to a right finger injury.
The Braves might not need Jones, considering the way they have played against Arizona as of late. They have won five of their last seven overall meetings with Arizona and six of the last nine played between the teams at Chase Field.
The Diamondbacks notched an 11-1 win at Atlanta on May 15 in the middle set of a three-game set, but the Braves responded with a 13-1 rout the following day to take the series victory.
Dan Haren suffered the loss on that day for Arizona, allowing seven runs -- six earned -- over a season-low 4 1/3 innings. He fell to 3-2 with a 6.44 earned run average lifetime against the Braves and will seek some revenge tonight.
Haren is just 5-4 with a 4.83 ERA this year, but he might have turned a corner last time out. After going 1-3 over his previous four starts with a 7.92 ERA and 10 homers allowed, he pitched eight shutout innings on Tuesday versus the Dodgers, working around seven hits without a walk and seven strikeouts.
"Every pitch I threw was 100 percent effort. I felt good. I'm starting to feel like I did in the past," said Haren after tossing a career-high 126 pitches.
The 29-year-old righty did not factor into the decision versus Los Angeles, a game his club lost 1-0 in extra innings, and he faces a Braves starter tonight in Derek Lowe that has won three straight times.
Lowe, who turned 37 last Tuesday, is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA over his last five starts since allowing seven runs in a loss to the Phillies on May 7. He got his revenge on Philadelphia Wednesday, limiting the club to a run on six hits over a season-high eight innings while striking out a season-best seven batters.
The right-hander improved to 8-4 with a 4.44 ERA on the season and is 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA in 18 career starts versus Arizona.
The Diamondbacks will try to snap Lowe's win streak one day after a tough 3-2 loss to Colorado and Ubaldo Jimenez in the finale of a three-game series. Arizona managed just Conor Jackson's two-run homer in the eighth inning, snapping a 21-inning scoreless drought versus Jimenez while ending the hurler's personal consecutive scoreless-innings run at 33.
Arizona nearly got to Jimenez in the first inning, loading the bases on an error, walk and single. However, Chris Young hit into an inning-ending double play.
"We made a run at the end, but we missed a few opportunities early, especially in the first," Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch said. "We were a foot away from not only scoring first, but also making Jimenez get to maybe 40 pitches in the first inning, which changes the entire complexion of the game."
Arizona, which had won the first two contests of the series to snap its losing streak at 10 straight, set a club record with its seventh one-run game in a row as it opened a 10-game homestand.
Shortstop Stephen Drew did not play for Arizona on Sunday after suffering a right finger injury the previous night and is day-to-day.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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