This Week in Auto Racing March 5 - 7

Autoracing Betting Lines

03/02/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR returns to the East Coast, as the Sprint Cup and Camping World Truck Series tackle one of the fastest tracks on the circuit.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Kobalt Tools 500 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

Since his disappointing 35th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, Jimmie Johnson has soared to fifth in the points standings with consecutive victories at California and Las Vegas.

Johnson's win at California came with a little bit of luck. The four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion benefited from a late-race caution when he pitted just before the yellow flag was displayed. He then held off a hard- charging Kevin Harvick in the closing laps.

Last Sunday, Johnson spoiled Jeff Gordon's dominate day at Las Vegas. Gordon led a track-record 219 laps, but he took two new tires only during his final pit stop. After putting on four tires, Johnson chased down his Hendrick Motorsports teammate and then made the winning pass with 17 laps to go.

It's early in the season, but Johnson's "drive for five" straight titles appears to be in full gear.

"We're excited," Johnson said. "It's early in the year, and it's a relief to know that we worked in the right areas over the off-season. Richmond [fall race] is a long way away from right now. We need to keep collecting points, winning races, make the Chase and then get to work for what we're really here for."

If Johnson wins this weekend at Atlanta, it will be his 50th career victory, which will place him in a tie with Ned Jarrett and 2010 NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Junior Johnson for 10th on the series' all-time race winners list.

Johnson has three victories at Atlanta, including a season sweep at the fast 1.54-mile track in 2007.

Heading into Atlanta, Harvick holds a 47-point lead over his Richard Childress Racing teammate Clint Bowyer. The resurgence of RCR continued at Las Vegas, with Harvick, Bowyer and Jeff Gordon turning in impressive performances once again. All three drivers have finished no worse than 11th in the first three races.

Atlanta has been one Harvick's best tracks. Despite a 19th-place result in points last season, Harvick finished fourth at Atlanta one year ago and then followed up with a second-place run there last September.

"We are really looking forward to Atlanta based upon how we ran there last time," Harvick said. "It has become one of those tracks that has been really good for us in anything that we have been racing there over the past three or four years."

Harvick's first Cup victory came at Atlanta on March 11, 2001, just weeks after RCR named him as replacement driver for Dale Earnhardt following Earnhardt's fatal crash in the Daytona 500. Harvick edged Gordon by 0.006 seconds at Atlanta for his maiden win in just his third start.

"I don't remember really anything from that day," Harvick said. "There were just so many different emotions and things that ran through my head that it was just kind of more of a strange moment than it was anything."

Ryan Newman will celebrate a career milestone at Atlanta, as the Stewart-Haas Racing driver is expected to make his 300th career start in NASCAR's top division. Newman is tied with Buddy Baker for most poles at Atlanta with seven. He won six consecutive poles there from March 2003 to October 2005.

"Atlanta has always been a place where I like to qualify, and it would be an honor to get the all-time pole record there," Newman said.

Newman has struggled in the early season, finishing 34th (Daytona), 36th (California) and 18th (Las Vegas). He currently is 32nd in points.

Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kobalt Tools 500.

Camping World Truck Series

Atlanta 200 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

After a two-week break, the Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Atlanta.

The series kicked off their season on February 12 at Daytona, with Timothy Peters winning the 250-mile race in thrilling fashion. Todd Bodine held the lead on the final lap, but Peters shoved Bodine up the track to claim the top spot. He went on to score his second career victory in the series.

"It's a very cool feeling being the points leader of the series, but Atlanta changes the game," Peters said. "It's a privilege to be in this position, but we also know it's our job to stay up there the entire season."

Peters has finished no better than 15th in his first three starts at Atlanta.

Kyle Busch is the defending Atlanta race winner. Busch, who is in his first year as driver and owner of a truck team, has four wins at Atlanta. If he takes the checkered flag for Saturday's event, he will join Bodine as the only drivers to score five series victories at the same track. Bodine has five wins at Texas.

"It's a track I really like," Busch said. "It's fast and the truck races are always really good. Obviously, getting a win there would be really huge, because it would be the first for Kyle Busch Motorsports."

Busch and Kevin Harvick are the only Sprint Cup Series regulars on the entry list for the Atlanta truck race. Nationwide Series veteran Steve Wallace is entered as well. Wallace will make his truck debut, driving the No.15 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports.

For the first time since in nearly six years, Geoff Bodine will compete in a truck race. Bodine will drive the No.95 Dodge for Danny Gill Racing. His last start came in July 2004 at Kentucky.

Bodine has spent the past several weeks at the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, overseeing the fortunes of his Bo-Dyn Bobsleds that carried the United States' four-man bobsled team to its first gold medal in the 62-year history of the event.

Thirty-nine teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Atlanta 200.

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Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, March 7. Race: Kobalt Tools 500. Site: Atlanta Motor Speedway. Track: 1.54-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 325. Miles: 500.5. 2009 winner: Kurt Busch. Televisi

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

Additional basketball lines can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.


Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.